It is a grim fact that eight Canadian soldiers have died here this year. It is also true that far more Taliban fighters are operating in the south than in the recent years and that they rule the roost in some parts of the countryside.
On the other hand, it has often been weeks between Taliban attacks on Canadian convoys and until now there have only been a few pitched gun battles between the two belligerents.
One reason is that the Taliban have quickly learned that they cannot possibly match the Canadians on the battlefield. To survive, they must carefully pick when and how to attack. Another factor is that the Canadians have not often been fooled more than once because they have apparently adapted well to Taliban tactics.
A few apocalyptic reports in the media have created the impression that the Canadian-led coalition down here is already back on its heels and that the Canadians are detested by Kandaharis because they have not been able to protect them from suicide bombers.
The truth is that the Patricias have only been conducting combat operations here for a couple of months. Many locals do not even know that there are now Canadians in their midst.
Observing some of the Canadians last week as they carefully combed the Taliban-infested Panjwai District, from which the enemy clearly hope to launch attacks on nearby Kandahar, was a revelation. Fuelled by as much as 15 litres of water per day, the Pats were as fit as Olympians. Despite the intense heat and the constant possibility of ambush, they took the initiative, forcing the Taliban to melt away after decisively losing one prolonged gun battle. It was a small victory that allowed the local population to come out of hiding and resume farming.
Notwithstanding the frustration at facing an enemy that usually drops its weapons or caches them and melts into the local population at the first sign of trouble, the morale of the Canadians operating "outside the wire" remains high.
Still, these are early innings in Kandahar. The great test for the Patricias and the infantry of the Royal Canadian Regiment and Royal 22nd Regiment who follow them, is how they fare over time.
Can Canada's only three fighting regiments maintain the present high tempo of operations for months and years in what is a remote, rugged, parched, furnace-like environment? Will their most obvious military weakness, the lack of any transport or assault helicopters capable of operating in this theatre, somehow be exploited by a savvy enemy?
Most crucially, will doves at home, including several Liberal leadership candidates, do the Taliban's bidding and turn every Canadian casualty into a cause celebre, eating away at national will to continue with a mission that is crucial to Western and Canadian interests because if it fails, Islamic holy warriors intent on attacking our societies, will have their way?
Or will the Taliban achieve this, its top short-term goal, by killing a large number of Canadians in a suicide bombing, a lucky mortar strike or by taking down a big American or British helicopter transporting a Canadian platoon to or from battle?
Very real dangers exist for Canadian troops in southeastern Afghanistan. But suggestions that the security situation here has deteriorated to the point that it is almost out of control are unfounded.
Where things are dire are in the Iraqi city of Ramadi, which insurgents have styled "the graveyard of the Americans." I would commend interested readers to look at Michael Fumento's vivid article in the June 19 Weekly Standard about his days with the 1st Battalion, 506th Infantry Regiment, 101st Airborne Division. According to Fumento, a third to a half of U.S. combat deaths in Iraq are in this one "hellhole" which is about a third the size of Baghdad.
Embedded Canadian journalists in Afghanistan have had a few close calls with suicide bombers and improvised explosive devices. But they have not witnessed big gun battles because there have been few of them.
The few embedded journalists that have made it to Ramadi are guaranteed protracted gun battles and bombings every time they set foot outside the wire.
This is all to say that while the Patricias battle group operates in a vicious neighbourhood against an implacable enemy, the situation here until now remains militarily speaking, relatively stable.
PUBLICATION: National Post
DATE: 2006.06.19
DATE: 2006.06.19
COLUMN: Matthew Fisher
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